Sector Specific Share Prices 22/03/13

Latest construction share prices for your viewing pleasure.

House builders have done well this week on the back Wednesdays budget. Heavy construction a mixed bag.

Have a great weekend.

CE Prices 220313

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Great British Period on Period Construction Output Falls for Fifth Consecutive Quarter

Figures released by the Office for National Statistics today show a fall in output in 7 of the 9 defined sectors. The largest fall being in the private commercial sector.

As the graphic below illustrates, the infrastructure sector has been one of the few growth areas over the past quarter although, output is still a way off the same period a year previous.

Here is a link to the ONS publication and dataset if you want more detail:

 PUBLICATION

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/construction/output-in-the-construction-industry/september-and-q3-2012/stb-construction-output-2012-q3.html

DATA

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-262512

 In other (equally dismal) news, my progress is slow with the construction share price data presentation and insight. I have a fully functioning spread sheet including charts, heat maps, interactive tables, etc. (which I use to aid trading decisions), yet its translation to the web is fraught with difficulty, mostly thanks to my lack of coding knowledge! I will persevere and hopefully it will be up within the next couple of months. In the meantime, I will start to post more regular Construction Company market insight and analysis in the form of charts and commentary which will become more interactive once I get the hang of this coding business.

UK Constuction Industry Market Analysis Sources

These headlines have become commonplace and reflect the current shabby state of the wider economy and the sentiment of many construction firms. Indeed, many of us can feel the diminution of positive sentiment in our everyday roles but for many firms it seems to be business as usual. The turmoil of the economy means different things to different companies. For some it may even provide business opportunity. So how do we measure the economic health of the whole construction industry with any accuracy?

To answer my own question…..we use the best data available to us.

This post documents some of the sources of data that I use every week to keep track of construction industry trend and sentiment. Much like an investment analyst or trader tracks key data and news feeds relating to the wider economy, particular company performance, or a specific currency pair, I like to keep up to date on the economic health of the industry within which I practice the most. I don’t have multiple screens running stochastic simulations on construction indices but I do take the occasional look at some of data provided by the following sources.

As you will see, I have listed some pros and cons of each source and attempted to assign each a crude score. Comparison is a tricky one – each medium is very different and often serves a unique purpose (how do you compare the ONS to Construction News?) so I have scored them based on four common criteria in an attempt to demonstrate usefulness by highlighting strengths and weaknesses.

These are subjective views and comments are, of course, very welcome.

GDP & Construction Output (Q2 2012)

National output shrank by -0.70% during Q2 of 2012 according to seasonally adjusted, provisional figures published by the ONS this week.

 Not a huge surprise given the lack of growth over the last 3 quarters, and the awful weather, but what about the relationship between construction and GDP………here is what the ONS say:

 ‘The seasonally adjusted index of construction output decreased by 5.2 per cent in Q2 2012, following a decrease of 4.9 per cent in the previous quarter. Construction output decreased by 9.7 per cent between Q2 2011 and Q2 2012.’

GDP & Construction Output

GDP & Construction Output

Although we saw weakness in the production and services sectors, the biggest contribution to the shrinking national output appears to be construction (or lack of it) in particular the anticipated decrease in publically funded work coupled with a lack of notable recovery in the private sector (which we hoped would help to bolster overall construction output while the public sector spending dwindle continues).

 The bleak trend was reiterated by The Construction Products Association (CPA) who have downgraded forecasts for the UK construction industry from their spring update; now forecasting a contraction in volume of -4.50% this year and -1.30% in 2013 with recovery starting in the early part of 2014 thanks in part to likely rejuvenation of public sector capital budgets.